May 14, 2022	INDEX
A couple of days ago the Met Office issued a prediction that there might be a year soon when ground surface temperatures increased by 1.5 degrees C, compared to the 1850-1900 average. Now the Met Office is an evil organisation (since some of the young people they are propelling to climate protest may be jailed for up to a year, if the latest legislation goes through) but it is not stupid. So that set me to thinking. What is this 1.5 degree increase, considering IPCC (which exists simply to scare you about CO2 emissions) said in its most recent prognostication that ground temperatures had increased by only 1 degree since 1850-1900? IPCC predicts 0.2 degrees of warming a decade. So where does 1.5 degrees come from? Clearly the weasel words are 'in one year' as if ground temmperatures might go up and then go down again. And of course, this is the point. It does happen. And it does happen particularly at the time of El Nino. This strange climatic event is associated with a periodic increase in water temperatures of about 0.5 degrees C in the Pacific. There's that 0.5 degree figure again! But El Nino is not based on some exogenous factor like a brighter sun or more CO2 in the atmosphere. It has been happening for centuries. It's regional phenomena and presumably temperatures dip elsewhere to compensate. So it made me wonder if this is pointing to some flaw in the way temperatures are collected? If El Nino could somehow justify a Met Office headline saying we were right, temperatures have gone up if only temporarily, does this point to a problem with the way the Met Office processes its data? It would be ironic if the Met Office, who have some of the most expensive computers in the world, was a victim to that old computer problem GIGO or Garbage in Garbage Out.
INDEX	May 14, 2022 Jonathan Brind