INDEX	July 9, 2022
The logic that would have impelled de Pfeffel to call an election in the autumn was based on the tipping of the balance of sentiment amongst Tory MPs. He had more enemies than friends. Add to that the seeming inevitably of stagnation or possibly even real economic decline next year. This logic will not be as strong for the new PM, whoever it is, since Tory MPs will not dare get rid of him or her this side of the election; but looming economic decline may still prove decisive. It's hard to win an election after so many years in power if the economy is on the rocks. And then there is the lesson of Gordon Brown. Brown should have called an election almost immediately on becoming PM. He would have won it, though probably with a reduced majority. But he decided he wanted to make his mark, to achieve something first. And so he lost, thanks mainly to the economic crisis. Brown had his time in power but who remembers any of his achievements? I know he does, but that doesn't count. For anyone else his legacy was keeping us out of the euro, something he did when he was Chancellor. Perhaps the new PM will remember Brown and take the risk of beating Alec Douglas Hume's record of being the PM to serve the shortest period, arguing that she or he needs to get a new, personal mandate. After all most PMs have the peak of their popularity shortly after being elected. So we could still have an autumn election. And de Pfeffel? He will probably go to the Lords.
INDEX Posted by Jonathan Brind.		July 9, 2022