INDEX | Friday August 27, 2021 | |
The carbon conundrum | IPCC issued the following graphs in 2021 showing increases in rainfall, temperatures are CO2 in lock step: | |
In the late 1980s, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its first apocalyptic report, according to the Mauno Loa Observatory (the standard source for this data) the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere was about 350 parts per million.
The latest figure from Mauna Loa is 416.96ppm. That's an incredible increase of more than 15% It is hard to find that original 1988 report but an IPCC report from 1992 is available on the IPCC web site (Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments) and this makes the interesting prediction that there would be:" An average rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2-0.5°C per decade) assuming the IPCC Scenario A (Business-asUsual) emissions of greenhouse gases; this is a more rapid increase than seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely increase in the global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025 (about 2°C above that in the pre-industrial period), and 3°C above today's value before the end of the next century (about 4°C above pre-industrial). The rise will not be steady because of other factors. " An increase of 15% in atmospheric CO2 can hardly be called business as usual (it's much worse than that) but to repeat part of that prediction IPCC said "This will result in a likely increase in the global mean temperature of about 1°C above the present value by 2025 (about 2°C above that in the pre-industrial period)." This prediction is simply wrong. In a report issued this year (click to download) IPCC says: "observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the decade 2006-2015 was 0.87°C (likely between 0.75°C and 0.99°C) higher than the average over the 1850-1900 period (very high confidence)." In 1992, IPCC was saying that there had already been one degree centigrade warming since the beginning of the industrial age, and yet the latest report is still saying there has been one degree centigrade of warming. In 1992 IPCC said we would have had two degrees of warming by 2025, a massively different amount of warming. Atmospheric CO2 rockets up, temperatures stay the same (according to IPCC), yet IPCC continues to predict temperature increases in lock step with CO2 increases (see graphs to the right from the 2021 IPCC report). It is also worth mentioning that despite the phenomenal increase in atmospheric CO2, IPCC has scaled back its predictions of future warming. In 1992, IPCC said there would be 0.3°C warming a decade. The latest report has cut this by 33% so that IPCC is now forecasting 0.2°C warming a decade. These are very strange times. See also Will the trees save us (well no they won't) Fantasy dominates environmental reporting CO2 defies the climatologists Loosen the chains of misery! | ||
INDEX | ||
Friday August 27, 2021 |